10 Outrageous Predictions for 2012

16 Dec 2011 11:38 Africa/Lagos



Saxo Bank Releases 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2012

LONDON, December 16, 2011/PRNewswire/ --

Saxo Bank has today released its annual Outrageous Predictions. Among the unlikely events predicted by the Bank are that Australia will go into recession, Basel III and regulation will force 50 bank nationalisations in Europe and Apple shares will plummet 50 percent from their 2011 high.

In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets.

Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012:

1. The stock of Apple Inc plummets 50 per cent from 2011 high

Going into 2012 Apple will find itself faced with multiple competitors such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft/Nokia, and Samsung across its most innovative products, the iPhone and iPad. Apple will be unable to maintain its market share of 55 per cent (three times as much as Android) and 66 per cent on the iOS and iPad.

2. EU declares extended bank holiday during 2012

The December EU Treaty changes prove insufficient to solve EU funding needs, particularly those in Italy, and the EU debt crisis returns with a vengeance by mid-year. In response, the stock market finally caves in and drops 25 per cent in short order, prompting EU politicians to call an extended bank holiday, closing all European exchanges and banks for a week or more.

3. A yet unannounced candidate takes the White House

In 1992, Texas billionaire Ross Perot managed to take advantage of a recessionary economy and popular disgust with US politics and reap 18.9 per cent of the popular vote. Three years of Obama has brought too little change and only additional widespread disillusionment with the entire US political system, and conditions for a third party candidate have never been riper. Someone with a strong programme for real change throws his or her hat in the ring early in 2012 and snatches the presidency in November in one of the most pivotal elections in US history, taking 38 per cent of the popular vote.

4. Australia goes into recession

The effects of the slowing up-and-coming Asian giant ripple through Asia Pacific push other countries into recession. If there ever was a country dependent on the well-being of China it is Australia with its heavy dependence on mining and natural resources. And as China's demand for these goods weakens, Australia is pushed into a recession, which is then exacerbated as the housing sector finally experiences its long overdue crash - a half decade after the rest of the developed world.

5. Basel III and regulation force 50 bank nationalisations in Europe

As 2012 begins, pressure will mount on the European banking system as new capital requirements and regulatory pressure force banks to deleverage in a great hurry. This creates a fire sale on financial assets as there are few takers in the market. A total freeze of the European interbank market forces nervous savers to make bank-runs, as depositors distrust deposit guarantees from insolvent sovereigns. More than 50 banks end up on government balance sheets and several known commercial bank brands cease to exist.

6. Sweden and Norway replace Switzerland as safe havens

As we saw with Switzerland, becoming a safe haven in a world of devaluing central banks presents a number of risks to a country's economy. The capital markets of both countries are far smaller than Switzerland, but the Swiss are aggressively devaluing their currency and money managers are looking for new safe havens for capital. Flows into the two countries' government bonds on safe haven appeal becomes popular enough to drive 10-year rates there to more than 100 basis points below the classic safe haven German Bunds.

7. Swiss National Bank wins and catapults EURCHF to 1.50

Switzerland's persistency in fighting the appreciation of its currency will continue to pay off in 2012. With Swiss fundamentals - particularly export related - continuing to suffer mightily in 2012 from past CHF strength, the SNB and government bear down further to prevent more collateral damage and introduce extensions to existing programmes and even negative interest rates to trigger sufficient capital flight from the traditional safe haven of Switzerland to engineer a move in EURCHF as high as 1.50 during the year.

8. USDCNY rises 10 per cent to 7.00

As marginal returns from building million-inhabitant ghost towns diminish and exporters struggle with razor-thin margins due to the advancing CNY China gets to the brink of a "recession", meaning 5-6 per cent GDP growth. Chinese policymakers come to the rescue of exporters by allowing the CNY to decline against a US Dollar - buoyed by its safe-haven status amid slowing global growth and an on-going Eurozone sovereign debt crisis - and send the pair up to 7.00 for a 10 per cent increase.

9. Baltic Dry Index rises 100 per cent

Lower oil prices in 2012 could lead to an increase in the Baltic Dry Index as operating expenses go down. Brazil and Australia are expected to expand iron ore supply, further leading to lower prices and therefore higher import demand from China to satisfy its insatiable industrial production. In combination with monetary easing this leads to a massive spike in iron ore demand.

10. Wheat prices to double in 2012

The price of CBOT wheat will double during 2012 after having been the worst performing crop in 2011. With 7 billion people on the earth and money printing machines at full throttle, bad weather across the world will unfortunately return and make it a tricky year for agricultural products. Wheat especially will rally strongly as speculative investors, who had built up one of the biggest short positions on record, will help drive the price back towards the record high last seen in 2008.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, commented: "Our Outrageous Predictions have been prepared in the spirit of encouraging investors to think outside the box and prepare for world-altering events. Thinking outside the box is rarely a comfortable exercise, but neither is dealing with an unpleasant surprise for which one has failed to prepare in any meaningful way.

"Should some of the predictions come to pass, it would make 2012 a year of tremendous change. We would like nothing more than to be proven wrong on negative views, but only if they are replaced with something better than the current central bank and government-manipulated paradigm."

To see more please visit the Outrageous Predictions [http://www.saxobank.com/lp/outrageous-predictions ] page Saxo Bank's website.

About Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank is a leading online trading and investment specialist. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank enables private investors and institutional clients to trade FX [http://www.saxobank.com/en/trading-products/forex/pages/forex-trading.aspx ], CFD [http://www.saxobank.com/en/trading-products/cfds-stocks/pages/online-cfd-trading.aspx ], ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives via three specialised and fully integrated trading platforms; the browser-based SaxoWebTrader, the downloadable SaxoTrader and the SaxoMobileTrader application available in over 20 languages. Saxo Bank also offers professional portfolio and fund management through Saxo Asset Management who accommodates high-net worth private clients and institutional investors and provides banking services and advice to retail clients through Saxo Privatbank. The Saxo Bank Group is headquartered in Copenhagen with offices throughout Europe, Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Australia.


PR Contact:
Kasper Elbj0rn
Head of Group Public Relations
Saxo Bank
40 Bank Street
Canary Wharf
London
E14 5DA
+45-3065-4300
http://www.saxobank.com


Source: Saxo Bank

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New Survey: Americans Plan to Spend Less on Holidays but Remain Generous Despite Recession

16 Nov 2009 14:00 Africa/Lagos

New Survey: Americans Plan to Spend Less on Holidays but Remain Generous Despite Recession

NEW WORLD VISION STUDY SAYS WE PLAN TO GIVE MORE TO CHARITY WHEN THE ECONOMY IMPROVES

AMERICANS SAY IT'S ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF CHILDREN DURING THE HOLIDAYS

SEATTLE, Nov. 16 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The faltering U.S. economy will again force many U.S. adults to cut back on holiday gift spending this year but according to a new study, three out of four Americans (76%) would prefer to receive a meaningful gift that would help someone else instead of a traditional holiday gift like clothing or electronics. And according to the new study commissioned by World Vision, an international relief and development organization, an overwhelming majority (95%), say the nation's focus over the holidays ought to be on helping children. Most Americans also say once the economy improves, they'll increase their donations to charities. According to the poll, conducted by Harris Interactive, almost three out of four (74%) say they'll increase their charitable giving once the economy improves.


2009 FINDINGS


More than nine out of ten (95 percent) agree that it is especially important to help children during the holiday season.


More than three out of four U.S. adults (76 percent) would prefer to receive a meaningful gift that would help someone else instead of a traditional holiday gift like clothing or electronics.


As a result of the current economic climate, almost six out of ten adults (57 percent) will spend less money on holiday presents this year. In 2008, seven out of ten (71 percent) said they would spend less on holiday gifts.


Almost three out of four (74 percent) plan to increase their charitable giving once the economy improves.


"The declines we see from 2008 reflect the realities of the challenging non-profit climate, with less charitable giving at a time when the need has increased for so many," says Justin Greeves, Senior Vice President, Business Leader, Public Affairs & Policy Research at Harris Interactive. "However, even in these difficult times, an overwhelming majority of Americans still want to help others in need and would rather receive a gift that would help another instead of receiving a traditional gift for themselves. That finding reveals our charitable culture at work. The declines we see in this survey mirror the climate overall. In June 2009, Giving USA reported a 5.7% drop in giving overall in 2008, the largest drop in five decades," says Greeves. "I'm surprised it's not a lot lower than that."


This is the second year World Vision has commissioned Harris Interactive to report on how charitable giving would be affected by the recession. Last year, World Vision also reported that U.S. adults planned to cut back on holiday gift spending. That study also concluded that many U.S. adults (49%) would be more likely to give a "charitable gift" as a holiday present. Both studies are available to media.


"This research shows that people are still very anxious about the economy but clearly concerned about children," says Devin Hermanson, World Vision's Gift Catalog Senior Director. "They want to help, but feel they should wait until the economy turns around. The Gift Catalog is a great solution since it allows them to have a life-changing impact for very little money.


And this year, we'll be able to truly show how powerful that impact can be through our Spirit of Christmas Tour. We'll be traveling literally around the world to videotape children and their families who have benefited from gifts from the Gift Catalog such as goats, water, and malaria prevention." The tour leaves New York November 22nd, returning in five weeks.


"A gift given from the Gift Catalog significantly improves the life of a child or family in need by providing tools and opportunities to overcome extreme poverty while at the same time honoring your friends and loved ones," says Hermanson. For each World Vision gift, the giver can make the purchase in the name of a friend, family member, or business associate. World Vision then sends special cards to those individuals, describing the gifts and their impact. In the following year, the gift itself or intervention reaches the child or family in need.


Last year alone, World Vision's Gift Catalog raised $25 million and provided assistance to more than 500,000 people around the world.


World Vision launched the Gift Catalog in 1996. And while a goat ($75) may be World Vision's number one seller, there are more than 100 gifts (many under $35) to choose from.


To order: www.worldvisiongifts.org. Or call toll-free (888) 511-6511. All items are tax-deductible.


About World Vision


World Vision is a Christian relief and development organization dedicated to helping children and their communities worldwide reach their full potential by tackling the causes of poverty. We serve the world's poor, regardless of a person's religion, race, ethnicity or gender. For more information, visit www.worldvision.org.


Source: World Vision U.S.

CONTACT: John Yeager of World Vision, +1-253-815-2356, +1-425-765-9845,
jyeager@worldvision.org


Web Site: http://www.worldvision.org/


NOTE TO EDITORS: Devin Hermanson - World Vision (holiday gift giving expert) and Justin Greeves - Harris Interactive are available for interviews. Contact John Yeager World Vision Media Relations 425-765-9845 (cell). Additional media contacts: Gardi Wilks (Central US) gardi@wilkspr.com, 708-434-5006; Laura Blank (Eastern US), lblank@worldvision.org, 617-945-7548; Myrna Gutierrez (Los Angeles & Southern California), mgutierr@worldvision.org, 323-377-2432; John Yeager (Seattle & Western US), jyeager@worldvision.org, 253-815-2356 (work), 425-765-9856 (cell). The poll was conducted by telephone on behalf of World Vision, an international Christian relief and development organization, among 1,001 U.S. adults (ages 18 +) Oct 29th - Nov 1st, 2009. For complete methodology, including weighing variables - please contact John Yeager.

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Divorce Filings Have Dropped in the Recession Reveals Survey of Top Matrimonial Lawyers

28 Oct 2009 15:00 Africa/Lagos

Divorce Filings Have Dropped in the Recession Reveals Survey of Top Matrimonial Lawyers

CHICAGO, Oct. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- The economy appears to be downsizing the frequency of divorce cases, along with jobs and salaries. More than half of the respondents to the latest survey of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers (AAML) are citing a drop in filings during the current recession. In all, 57% of the attorneys have noted fewer divorce filings since the last quarter of 2008.


"The current economic climate is proving to be far more unforgiving than estranged couples seeking a divorce," said Gary Nickelson, president of the AAML. "Forced to weigh damaged marriages against tight budgets and uncertain financial outlooks, many spouses seem more willing to try and wait out the recessionary storm."


Overall, 57% of AAML members reported a decrease in the number of divorce filings since the last quarter of 2008, while only 14% noted an increase in filings during these difficult times.


About AAML


Founded in 1962, the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers (AAML) is committed to encouraging the study, improving the practice, elevating the standards, and advancing the cause of matrimonial law, in order to better protect the welfare of American families.


Comprised of the top 1,600 matrimonial attorneys throughout the nation, members are recognized experts in the specialized areas of matrimonial law, including divorce, prenuptial agreements, legal separation, annulment, custody, property valuation and division, support, and the rights of unmarried couples. For more information, please visit www.aaml.org.


Source: American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers (AAML)

CONTACT: Brian Downey, bdowney@auletta.com, +1-212-355-0400, or Casey
Stickles, cstickles@auletta.com, +1-212-355-0400, both of R.C. Auletta and
Co., LLC, for AAML


Web Site: http://www.aaml.org/


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Pelosi: 'Next Week, 7.7 Million Americans Will Receive Recovery Rebates -- This is Just the Beginning'

Pelosi: 'Next Week, 7.7 Million Americans Will Receive Recovery Rebates -- This is Just the Beginning'

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Republican Leader John Boehner, and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer held a news conference in the Capitol yesterday on Recovery Rebates. Below are the Speaker's opening remarks:


"Because Congress has taken swift and bipartisan action on the economy, we were able to observe the fact that this week America's families will be receiving their Recovery Rebate checks.


"In January, we passed economic stimulus legislation with Recovery Rebates for America's families. In February, the President signed the legislation into law.


"Today, we announce the good news that next week, 7.7 million Americans will receive their Recovery Rebates. This is just the beginning.


"For a middle-class family of four, that is $1,800, including $300 for each child. If they have more children, then of course, their check would be more.


"By the end of the summer, 130 million American families will receive their rebates to help them make ends meet, and boost our economy.


"American families need these rebates for the rising cost of gas and groceries, and this will help get the economy moving. These checks will not come a moment too soon for families struggling with the economic downturn -- that they are a good, strong step.


"The strain of the economic downturn on middle- and low-income families demands, in my view, a consideration of a second stimulus package and we have begun some conversations with the Administration and the Republicans on that.


"Just as we did with the Recovery Rebates, Congress must work in a bipartisan way to find solutions for the immediate crisis and for a long-term economic recovery for America.


"Specifically, we are working on efforts to pass additional sweeping legislation to keep millions of families in their homes, provide relief to millions of out-of-work Americans, and reduce the strain on families who are struggling with rising gas and grocery prices.


"These Recovery Rebates are an example of how Congress and work together and what can be accomplished when we work in a bipartisan way.


"In that regard, I'm very honored to be standing here with the distinguished Republican Leader of the House and my colleague, the Democratic Leader, Mr. Hoyer. I'm pleased to yield the floor to Mr. Boehner and acknowledge his leadership as essential in getting this relief to American families."


Source: Office of the Speaker of the House

CONTACT: Brendan Daly or Nadeam Elshami, both of Office of the Speaker
of the House, +1-202-226-7616

Bullish Forecast Despite Doom and Gloom

28 Mar 2008 12:30 Africa/Lagos


Bullish Forecast Despite Doom and Gloom

Mortgage Guru Calls Market Bottom and Says Recession Unlikely!

ATLANTA, March 28 /PRNewswire/ --

Brian Peart, CEO of Nexus Financial Group, Inc and one of Bankrate.com weekly survey experts, believes the stock market has bottomed and that over the next few months the market will begin to adjust to the reality that a recession is not happening.


Speaking at the Commercial Capital Net Branch Conference in Atlanta last week, Peart said, "Bear Stearns Monday was less important than what I will call, 'Lehman Tuesday'." Brian continued, "What we saw in those two days was a microcosm of what we will see over the next several months. The market has priced in a doom and gloom recession and the Bear Stearns fire sale was the climax. Without even one quarter of negative growth, most analysts are convinced we're already in recession. However, I believe a snapshot of the next 6 months is better seen in Tuesday's action. Fueled by fears, Lehman's stock was as low as $20 overnight Monday after they reported numbers that were down 57%, but not near as bad as expected. Lehman stock shot to $36 at the open and by week's end was trading at $48.


"I believe the market has priced in a full recession and though numbers will come in bad, they will not come in as bad as expected. I see negative growth in Q1, but not as deep as expected and Q2 will be up. Everyone I talk to on Main Street America is doing OK. Boomers still have retirement money to put to work, we are doing a ton of refinances in FL -- not everyone is upside down on their mortgage, I talk to businesses and most of them are doing quite well. I believe the intraday low around 11,600 on the Dow will prove to be the 52 week low. Clearly we haven't seen the end of the foreclosures and more bad news is coming, but this too shall pass."


Peart's mortgage company defied the general mortgage malaise and grew revenue 83% last year, while enjoying 166% increase in net profits. His commercial arm, Commercial Capital, LTD is funding $20 Million a month in commercial loans and is one of the fastest growing companies in the industry. Email Brian at nexusfinance@minspring.com.


Source: Nexus Financial Group, Inc

CONTACT: Nick Van Nice of Nexus Financial Group, Inc, +1-561-236-5216


Web site: Nexus Financial