Evans-Novak Political Report: FINAL EDITION

ENPR: FINAL EDITION
Posted 02/04/2009 ET
Updated 02/05/2009 ET

Dear Reader,

As you may have read in the Evans-Novak Political Report, my recent health issues have forced me to give up active participation in the newsletter. Thankfully, my gifted deputy, Tim Carney, has ably filled the void for the past few months.

However, with the election and the inauguration behind us, and after much thought and deliberation with my publisher, we have decided that it is time to retire the Evans-Novak Political Report.

As you might imagine, this was an extremely difficult decision for me, and one I did not make lightly. It has been an honor to report on American politics for more than five decades, covering eight presidents, 23 Congressional elections and state and countless local elections and issues. I am grateful for your support of the Evans-Novak Political Report over the years, and wish you and your family all the best.

Sincerely,
Robert D. Novak

To Our Readers:

As you can see in the accompanying letter this will be our final issue.

Therefore, we thought you would enjoy a look back of this newsletter:

In 1967, four years after Rowland Evans and Bob Novak joined forces for a six-times-a-week newspaper syndicated column, the two ace journalists launched a bi-weekly political newsletter with the name Evans-Novak Political Report

In 1967, four years after Rowland Evans and Bob Novak joined forces for a six-times-a-week syndicated newspaper column, the two ace journalists launched a bi-weekly political newsletter with the name, the Evans-Novak Political Report.

While their column was built around unearthing news about those in power and those aspiring to power, Evans and Novak used their newsletter to analyze the political scene, note trends and shifts in the landscape, and forecast elections. While both writers had their own opinions on policies and politicians—opinions they shared in columns and television appearances—ENPR, in order to be useful to readers trying to understand the political scene, always aimed to set aside political prejudices.

From the start, ENPR succeeded in stirring up strife, landing Evans and Novak on Richard Nixon's enemies list when an early newsletter drew attention to the disconnect between the President's demeanor and the real troubles he faced.

Throughout ENPR's history, dozens of journalists working for or with Evans and Novak have contributed to the newsletter. It was the journalistic training ground of many young journalists including the Wall Street Journal's John Fund, and National Review Online's David Freddoso. I, too, served as a staff writer, from 2002 through 2004, before returning in 2006 as senior reporter and more recently as editor.

ENPR's reporters and editors dug into every potentially competitive U.S. House and Senate race, poked their noses around Capitol Hill, and burned up the phone lines to sources in federal agencies, campaigns, and parties—all with the aim of providing our readers with the most complete analysis of the political scene.

ENPR was among the first covering each House and Senate race and sizing up all the candidates. Evans and Novak were pioneers in this field, and for an aspiring politician looking to get his name known, trotting into the Evans and Novak offices was the way to show up on the radar.

Eventually Eagle Publishing bought the newsletter from Novak, leaving all editorial and hiring decisions in Novak's hands, but handling the business end. In the last decade, we began using the Internet and e-mail to distribute the newsletter, but the content remained the same.

In the prediction game, we had hits and misses. In 2002 and 2004, we beat the other prognosticators by refusing to read the elections as national races, but instead picking apart all 435 House races and all 34-or-so Senate races on their own. We were nearly perfect in those two cycles. On the other hand, the Democratic tidal wave of 2006 was more forceful than we had anticipated.

Last year, we correctly called Obama's Iowa win and Hillary Clinton's third-place finish, and we explained early that Mike Huckabee's caucus victory put McCain in the driver's seat for the GOP nomination. Come November, we underestimated Obama's Electoral College victory, but we got the Senate perfect and nearly nailed the Democrats' net pickup in the House.

We've also gotten some scoops over the years. In 2001, ENPR was the first outlet to report that Sen. Jim Jeffords ( Vt.) was bolting the Republican Party, swinging control of the Senate to the Democrats. In 2007, we were the first to report that Rep. Dennis Hastert ( Ill.) was resigning his seat early, triggering a special election.

But more important than the predictions or the scoops was the analysis. ENPR didn't engage in ideological arguments or the deaf-dumb-blind reportage that can make some newspaper stories useless. We didn't waste space with quotes-for-the-sake-of-quotes, and frankly, we didn't always give all sides equal space—equal space and politicians' quotes are often more distracting than informative. Our reporting was mostly on-background conversations with sources in the know, so that we could put our readers in the know.

We hope you think we succeeded.

Senate 2010

Illinois:With Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and colleagues caving and seating Rod Blagojevich-appointed Democrat Roland Burris, fresh life has been breathed into Republican hopes of winning their first Senate race in Illinois since 1998. The 71-year-old Burris has never publicly agreed that he wouldn't run for a full term in 2010 and odds are strong he will face a primary challenge. Two Republican U.S. House members—moderate Mark Kirk and conservative Pete Roskam—are both reportedly considering a Senate race. The entire cloud hanging over the drama culminating in the impeachment of Blagojevich is not likely to go away soon and a likely indictment and criminal trial of the deposed Democrat can only help Republican chances in 2010.

New Hampshire: The surprise naming of Republican Sen. Judd Gregg as secretary of Commerce changes the political landscape here in a big way. Despite major Democratic gains in '06 and '08, Gregg would have been a favorite to win a fourth term in 2010. With his exit, Gov. John Lynch (D) named longtime Gregg associate and ex-University of New Hampshire President Bonnie Newman as interim senator. A self-described "moderate," Republican Newman, who backed Lynch for governor, has pledged to serve only the remainder of Gregg's term and not run in 2010—when Lynch himself is expected to make a Senate race. With New Hampshire Democrats controlling the governorship, the other U.S. Senate seat, both U.S. House seats, and a majority in both houses of the state legislature, the GOP does not have a strong bench here and the names mentioned as Senate candidates are increasingly those from the past, such as former Sen. John Sununu and ex-Gov. Craig Benson. The GOP will be hard-pressed to hold onto this seat in 2010.

New York: Surprisingly, Republicans are beginning to show some enthusiasm about winning the special election in 2010 for the remaining two years of Hillary Clinton's Senate seat. Appointed Sen. Kirsten Gildebrand (D), a two-term member of the House, has infuriated the liberal downstate voters (who increasingly cast the bulk of Democratic primary votes here) with her record of opposing gun control, taking a harder line on illegal immigration, and voting against the Wall Street bailout. Long Island Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, an outspoken gun control proponent, has strongly hinted she will take on Gildebrand in the Democratic primary next year. GOPers would love to see Rudy Giuliani run for the Senate, but sources close to the former New York mayor tell us he is uninterested. Rep. Peter King, considered far more conservative than Giuliani, has had some close calls in recent elections and is exploring a bid for either governor or senator in 2010.





A Final Word:

We are in fact, entering a new era of American politics. But then again, we frequently enter new eras of American politics. Barack Obama has immense political capital and popularity. Democrats are gaining politically in every corner of the map, and at every level of government. Obama's popularity and political skill contribute to this rising Democratic tide.

But ENPR has seen this before, in 1974, 1980, 1994, and 2006. "Paradigm Shifts" are a fact of political life, and only those with short memories believe that the resulting political alignment from these shifts is permanent.

Political trends always reverse. Republicans, after 12 years of accelerating federal spending, two weeks ago unanimously rejected Obama's stimulus bill in the House--reminiscent of their rejection of Bill Clinton's 1993 budget. Conservative Republican senators this week, while attacking the stimulus bill, also called on Obama to withdraw his nomination of Tom Daschle as secretary of Health and Human Services, which he eventually did. The fighting spirit that had been heavily sapped--or co-opted by President Bush--is back.

Obama, meanwhile, may be redefining the political operations of a sitting President. Within the Democratic National Committee, he has created a new organization that will try to harness the grassroots base that drove him to victory in November, and mobilize these people to push his agenda--presumably in the districts of wavering congressmen. Obama, in other words, may the first President to effectively cash in--and bank--political capital.

Also, Obama's readiness to toss overboard secondary goals--his support for corn ethanol, the Daschle and Richardson nominations, funding for contraception in the stimulus--suggests that he rejects the past Democratic Party modus operandi of fighting to win over every inch. Instead, he has some core, longer-term goals, and anything peripheral to them can go by the wayside.

Obama may enjoy a longer honeymoon than most Presidents, but it already seems to be coming to an end as various polls find a large portion of the public turning against the huge stimulus bill with its massive deficit spending. He will stumble. Republicans will build new political coalitions, and, even if they don't get back a majority of either chamber in the near future, the pendulum will eventually swing back.

Politics has a tendency to cast down the mighty and lift up the lowly. Politics makes a fool of any commentator or participant who, explaining the significance of a recent political development, uses the words "never" or "from now on."

Everything about politics—the heroes, the goats, the dynamics, the rules of thumb, the alliances, the enmities—comes and goes. With sadness, so does the Evans-Novak Political Report.

Robert David Sanders "Bob" Novak (born February 26, 1931) is a conservative American political commentator, syndicated columnist and journalist who writes the longest-running current U.S. syndicated political column (45 years, as of February 2008).

Over his career, Novak became well-known as a columnist (writing Inside Report since 1963) and as a television personality (appearing on many shows for CNN, most notably on three former programs, The Capital Gang, Crossfire, and Evans, Novak, Hunt, & Shields). Novak announced that he had been diagnosed with a brain tumor and that his prognosis was "dire" on August 4, 2008, and that he was retiring. However, on August 27, 2008, he resumed writing opinion columns distributed by Creators Syndicate.

For More:
CIA leak grand jury investigation
CIA leak scandal timeline
Daily Show recurring segment on Bob Novak
Joseph C. Wilson
Plame affair
Rowland Evans (his partner in journalism for 30 years)
Valerie Plame

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Racial Divide Guarantees Obama Nomination

ENPR: Racial Divide Guarantees Obama Nomination
by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney (more by this author)
Posted 05/07/2008 ETUpdated 05/07/2008 ET

Outlook

In the wake of Sen. Hillary Clinton's dismal performance Tuesday, pressure will mount on her to get out of the Democratic presidential race against Sen. Barack Obama. She and her inner circle are determined to stay in, but since there is no way she can be nominated, don't be surprised if she gets out before the primaries end in June.

Clinton needed a strong showing Tuesday in order to make a convincing pitch to super-delegates. Now her arguments to the super-delegates will go down two paths: a) The national polls that have shown Clinton running better than Obama against Sen. John McCain (though those surveys are sure to look different soon); or b) Clinton operative Harold Ickes is repeating his campaign's familiar refrain: We don't know enough about Obama, and Republicans will take dead aim against him in the general election campaign.

Those pitches to the super-delegates will likely fall flat, even for super-delegates who fear that Obama may have a glass jaw (his campaigning in the last two weeks has not reassured them). He won Tuesday not on the strength of his campaigning, but because North Carolina was suited for him and Indiana, a neighbor of Illinois with many voters part of the Chicago media market, was no Pennsylvania or Ohio.

Nevertheless, Clinton cannot catch Obama, and the bottom line is race. Obama won over 90 percent of the African-American vote in both states Tuesday, and that made life difficult for Clinton. Super-delegates flinch at going for Clinton because it would be seen as intentionally blocking the first black candidate with a chance to be nominated for president-threatening to alienate the most loyal element in the Democratic Party's base.

In his victory speech Tuesday night, Obama recovered from his recent subpar campaigning and reverted to his charismatic preaching style. He predicted the Republicans would launch personal attacks on him, while he would stay on the high road. Obama seemed even to rule out labeling him a liberal-a self-portrait that the news media will reliably reinforce. In the meantime, Democratic ads already have started to label as McCain as a) old and b) the third term of George W. Bush.

McCain's "honeymoon"-the interval between his clinching the Republican nomination and Obama's clinching the Democratic honeymoon-has ended. McCain has largely solidified his Republican base but still has to worry about evangelical holdouts, such as Virginia home-school advocate Michael Farris. Reports of non-support from former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee are not true, however. He still needs to worry about the broad lack of enthusiasm for him among Republican voters.

With Clinton about to be out of the picture, look for a big Obama jump in the polls to take a lead-maybe a commanding lead-against McCain. The dreadful state of the GOP, as reflected in its recent loss of a Louisiana congressional seat (see below), was bound to catch up with the presidential race. McCain cannot win without sustained battering of Obama, a tactic that McCain deplores.

Democratic Presidential

Overview: Any reasonable doubt about the nomination was erased yesterday with Obama's outperforming expectations in both states.

Clinton had lost any chance of winning the race for pledged delegates back in February, after the Maryland, D.C., and Virginia primaries. Her thin hope rested on a popular-vote victory nationwide-a hope shattered last night.

Obama is now in "dead girl/live boy" territory for the nomination. The central question is: When will Clinton give up the ghost. In truth, the remaining primaries look strong for her.

Obama scored a tiny, little-noticed victory in Guam's caucuses over the weekend.

North Carolina: Hillary's Hail Mary pass here fell dreadfully short.
Obama was supposed to win here, but 56% is a stomping-exceeding expectations. The huge win follows on increased speculation (and GOP hopes) that Clinton would make this a real contest.
Obama won 91% of the black vote, according to exit polls. That's a higher percentage of the black vote than he won in earlier states, and blacks are a bigger portion of the electorate here than in most states. His continued weak performance among white Democrats (37%) suggests Obama as nominee would do even worse in the South than other recent Democrats.

The universities, black areas, and the wine-and-cheese crowd in Charlotte all backed Obama, while Clinton ruled only the white rural counties. This shows that she failed to reach beyond her standard base in North Carolina.

Clinton's push here-spending more money in North Carolina than in Indiana-reflected her awareness that she needed to show late momentum by finishing close here if she was going to convince super-delegates that Obama's balloon had been pierced by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright flap or his "bitter" comments.

Obama's massive 230,000-vote victory here ends Clinton's hope of winning the popular vote.

Indiana: Clinton's tiny win here was a loss-one that may have ended her slim hopes.
She needed to win Indiana by more than she lost North Carolina. Even a five-point win here would have been bad news. Winning by less than two points is a disaster.

Obama won 59%-41% among first-time primary voters, which wiped out most of Clinton's 10-point win among repeat primary voters.

Obama dominated Indianapolis, winning 67% of Marion County. Winning St. Joseph County (containing South Bend and two universities, but also heavily Catholic), and carrying Lake County (including Gary and the "white-flight" Chicago suburbs) by 12 points were his most impressive showings. Clinton won the state on the strength of the rural vote in central and southern Indiana.

Exit polls show a clearer ideological correlation than in most states. Basically, the more liberal you were, the more likely you were to vote for Obama. Sex and income did not affect voting patterns.

Race numbers here were the same as in North Carolina: Obama won 92% of black voters while Clinton won 60% of white voters. This increasing racial polarization could be bad news for Democrats.

Going Forward: Clinton remains in the race, and the remaining primaries tend to favor her. This suggests she might not drop out until the voting is done.

Obama carried the day by about 200,000 votes, extending his popular-vote margin to 715,000-an insurmountable lead. Even with Florida counted, Obama leads by about 420,000.
It will take a massive super-delegate movement, or a very strong nudge by her supporters in the Senate or the party for her to drop out. The final five states plus Puerto Rico break slightly for her, as she has the edge in the three larger contests.

In next week's West Virginia primary, Hillary Clinton will dominate. The Mountain State lacks a liberal base of students or wealthy whites and is only 3.3% black. Polls show her leading by nearly 30 points. She should win at least 18 of the 28 delegates, and could make a net pickup of about 70,000 to 80,000 votes.

Oregon, with its large hippie population, leans strongly towards Obama in the May 20 primary. The two most recent polls show him around 50%, leading Clinton by a margin of 6 to 12 points. His eventual margin will probably be near the upper end of that range.

Kentucky holds its primary the same day as Oregon (May 20), and this should be Clinton walk-over. With the exception of Louisville, this state is white and rural, and prone to gun- and religion-clinging. Expect a 2-to-1 Clinton margin.

Puerto Rico's June 1 primary may have the highest turnout of the remaining primaries. Clinton is the heavy favorite, despite the lack of reliable polls. Gov. Anibal Acevedo-Vila has endorsed Obama, but subsequently has been indicted.

South Dakota and Montana on June 3 hold the two final primaries, and both lean in Obama's direction. While small in delegate impact, two Obama wins could provide a handy hook on which Clinton could hang her dropping out.

Other Recent Results
Indiana Governor:: Former Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D) edged out Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger (D) in the primary, earning the right to challenge vulnerable Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) in the fall. A huge showing in her former northeast Indiana congressional district boosted her to 50.2% yesterday.

Louisiana-1: State Sen. Steve Scalise (R) comes to Congress, filling the seat left vacant by the resignation of Rep. Bobby Jindal (R), now the governor. In Saturday's special election Scalise thrashed college teacher Gilda Reed (D) by a 3-to-1 margin in this Republican stronghold.
Louisiana-6: A heavily Republican district in the country's most Republican-trending state is now in the hands of a Democrat, after State Rep. Mike Cazayoux (D) defeated former State Rep. Woody Jenkins (R) in Saturday's special election. The win has Democrats gloating. National or statewide implications exist, but are probably minimal.

This Baton Rouge district gave 59% of its vote to George Bush in 2004 and convincingly elected Rep. Richard Baker (R) to 11 terms before he resigned in February to become the head of the Managed Funds Association. Democrats argue that their ability to win this seat shows the depth and the breadth of the country's discontent with Bush and the GOP. The Democratic spin is hyperbole, but considering that Louisiana is one of the few bright spots for the GOP on the entire map this year, Cazayoux's loss has got to make Republicans everywhere sweat.

To be sure, there were extraordinary circumstances in this race, the most significant being Woody Jenkins himself. Louisianans in politics, both Republicans and Democrats, regularly refer to Jenkins's "baggage." His protest of his controversial narrow loss to Mary Landrieu (D) in the 1996 Senate race, his indirect ties to David Duke, and-most important-his shrill tone all work against him. Some moderate Republicans worried whether Jenkins would make their state and their town look bad. President Bush visited the district during the special election and hosted a fundraiser for presumptive Senate candidate John Kennedy (R), but he never appeared with or mentioned Jenkins. Any other GOP nominee might have won this district.

Democrats also nominated the best possible candidate. Cazayoux has amassed a pro-life, pro-gun record in the legislature, and his campaign established him as a conservative legislator early. He described himself as a "John Breaux Democrat," and Breaux, a longtime Senate moderate, endorsed Cazayoux and sent out last-minute robo-calls.

When the Jenkins campaign, outside groups, and the National Republican Congressional Committee came in to try to paint Cazayoux as a Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama liberal, it had limited impact.

Insofar as Cazayoux's victory hung on his distancing himself from the Democratic Party, it is hard to see this as a Republican repudiation or a Democratic mandate. But Cazayoux was another shrewd pick by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, showing that Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D.-Ill.) is more interested in party-building than in ideological purity.
Cazayoux's victory is made more impressive by the attempt by some black Democrats in the district to trip him up. In the primary, Cazayoux defeated State Rep. Michael Jackson (D), an African-American. After losing, Jackson indicated he would run in the November general election as an independent. This highlights the divide between conservative white Democrats and more liberal black Democrats in the state. In fact, black Baton Rough Mayor Kip Holden (D) basically withheld his support from Cazayoux.

The low turnout of the special election may have helped Cazayoux, considering that government employees-a left-leaning bunch, taken as a whole-tend to be overrepresented in low-turnout races. Because Baton Rouge is the state capital, the public-payroll constituency could have made the difference.

Republicans have a strong shot to take this seat back in November. If Jackson runs, or if Republicans come up with a different nominee than Jenkins, Cazayoux would be an underdog. Even Jenkins, however, with a presidential race and a Senate race on the top of the ticket could possibly win here. For now, however, Baton Rouge is a Democratic town in a Republican state.
North Carolina Governor: Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) fended off a spirited challenge by State Sen. Fred Smith (R) to win the GOP nomination in this open-seat governor race. Gov. Mike Easley (D) is being forced into retirement by term limits, and his lieutenant governor, Bev Perdue (D), will be the Democratic standard-bearer, winning her primary last night with 55%.
North Carolina-10: Rep. Walter Jones (R) easily staved off pro-war challenger Joe McLaughlin (R) racking up a 60%-to-40% win. Jones, who has become a vocal critic of the Iraq War following his early support, survived in this military- and veteran-heavy district. He should be safe in the fall.

North Carolina-11: Freshman Rep. Heath Shuler (D) will face Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower (R) in November. Mumpower won a three-way primary with 48% for the right to face Shuler in this GOP district.


Mr. Novak is a syndicated columnist and editor of the Evans-Novak Political Report, a political newsletter he founded in 1967 with Rowland Evans.